Lokomotiv Kuban vs MBA Moscow

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Lokomotiv have won 4 of 7 September games, including 90-82 at CSKA Moscow and 81-66 over Enisey, and all 10 listed H2Hs, most recently 88-67 at home in April. The home venue and current results support the estimate; the model's 82% is secondary and is discounted for its mixed-season sample. Main risk: MBA won at Zenit Petersburg and Unics Kazan in September before losing 65-82 to CSKA, so their 2-1 current record is stronger than the older aggregate suggests.