Jovic I. vs Dart H.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Jovic won eight of ten comparable hard-court matches, including her latest four in straight sets against Stearns, Bucsa, Frech and Sonmez. Her wins generally came against stronger opposition than Dart's recent wins, with supplied ranks 13 versus 116. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 20 July to 3 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Dart also won eight of ten comparable matches, beat Stearns in August and just won three matches. Jovic lost 0-2 to Gauff and Bouzkova; her latest supplied match is from 20 September. No H2H is supplied and Dart's current winning form is meaningful.