Berrettini M. vs Vallejo D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Vallejo took sets in seven of eight comparable completed hard-court best-of-three matches, including current wins over Jodar, Faria and Daniel and an August win over Vacherot. These wins include opponents ranked 13 and 18. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 20 July to 3 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Berrettini just beat Davidovich Fokina and took sets in all four comparable matches; his small sample and serve-driven variance limit confidence. Vallejo lost 0-2 to Van De Zandschulp. The incomplete Carreno-Busta entry and best-of-five scores are excluded; no H2H is supplied.