Rakhimova K. vs Fernandez L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Fernandez took sets in nine of ten comparable hard-court matches, winning her latest five including straight-set wins over Andreeva and Gibson and a three-set win over Chwalinska. She won the supplied 2024 hard-court H2H 2-1. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 20 July to 3 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Rakhimova took sets in eight of ten comparable matches and just beat Bassols 2-0, with earlier wins over Krejcikova and Birrell. Fernandez lost 0-2 to Osaka and her winning run creates a busy recent workload. The H2H is old and secondary.