Cerundolo F. vs Mensik J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Mensik took sets in six of seven comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, including a 2-0 win over Bublik on 1 October and wins over Bellucci and Hijikata. Cerundolo won one of five comparable matches, with setless losses to Borges and Michelsen. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 20 July to 3 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Cerundolo just beat Van De Zandschulp and had strong best-of-five wins over Fritz and Struff. He won both supplied H2Hs, including 2-0 on hard in 2024. Mensik lost 0-2 to Shelton; best-of-five results are context, not comparable trials.