Ostapenko J. vs Badosa P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Badosa won five of seven comparable hard-court matches, including two wins over Kasatkina and September wins over Stoiana and Mikulskyte. Ostapenko won only one of four comparable matches and lost 0-2 to Preston and Frech. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 20 July to 3 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Badosa lost 0-2 to Podoroska and Gauff; Ostapenko is higher ranked and the model favours her. The four-match opponent sample is small. The old hard H2Hs are mixed, although Badosa took a set in the latest one in 2024.