Harris L. vs Ilagan A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Harris took sets in eight of nine comparable hard-court best-of-three matches and won seven, including straight-set wins over Vacherot, Kovacevic, Galarneau and Pavlovic. He also beat Ilagan 2-0 in August. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Ilagan just beat Sharipov and Dellavedova 2-0. Harris lost 0-2 to Hurkacz and 1-2 to Sharipov and has a busy recent schedule. Best-of-five and incomplete scores are excluded from comparable counts; the H2H is supporting evidence only.