Zarazua R. vs Sabalenka A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 86%. Sabalenka took sets in nine of ten comparable hard-court matches and won eight, including September wins over Pegula and Noskova. Zarazua won three of ten comparable matches; Sabalenka also won their supplied 2024 hard-court H2H 2-0. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Zarazua just beat Bondar 2-0 and took sets in seven of ten comparable matches. Sabalenka lost 0-2 to Bejlek and last played on 12 September in the supplied records. The old H2H is only secondary support.