Medvedev D. vs Carreno-Busta P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Medvedev won his four latest hard-court matches, including 2-0 against Rublev and Safiullin on 28-29 September. He took sets in five of six comparable best-of-three matches and is ranked 6 versus Carreno-Busta's 66. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Carreno-Busta just beat Mannarino and Zhou 2-0 and took sets in four of five comparable completed matches. Medvedev lost 0-2 to Damm and 0-3 to Tiafoe. Best-of-five and incomplete scores are excluded from comparable counts; the supplied H2Hs are old.