Pieri S. vs Taberner C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Taberner took sets in six of eight comparable completed clay matches, including straight-set wins over Giunta and Moller on 29 September-1 October and wins over Hemery and Nesterov. Those results include stronger opposition than much of Pieri's winning sample. Comparable counts use supplied completed clay best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Pieri took sets in eight of ten comparable matches and just beat Lokoli and Martin 2-0. Taberner lost 0-2 to Alcala Gurri and Rocha, and their rankings are close. Incomplete older scores are excluded; there is no H2H.