Fils A. vs Tiafoe F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Fils won all nine comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, including wins over Cobolli, De Minaur, Lehecka and Tiafoe in August and three wins on 28-30 September. He won both supplied hard-court H2Hs against Tiafoe 2-1. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Tiafoe took sets in all four comparable matches and had strong US Open form, including straight-set wins over Medvedev and Vacherot. The two players are ranked 9 and 8. Best-of-five results, including Fils's loss to Tsitsipas, are context rather than comparable trials.