Alexandrova E. vs Sasnovich A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Alexandrova took sets in nine of ten comparable hard-court matches, with wins over Sabalenka, Birrell and Gibson and competitive losses to Svitolina, Bejlek and Tauson. She won the two latest supplied hard-court H2Hs against Sasnovich 2-0. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Sasnovich has just won three matches in straight sets, including over Gibson, while Alexandrova's latest supplied match was a 0-2 loss to Kostyuk on 4 September. The H2Hs are from 2023 and 2025, so they are secondary evidence.