Ruzic A. vs Kostovic T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Kostovic took sets in eight of nine comparable completed hard-court matches and won seven, including recent wins over Galfi, Iatcenko and Semenistaja. Ruzic lost five of eight comparable matches without a set. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Ruzic just beat Riera and Valdmannova 2-0 and several earlier losses were against much higher-ranked opponents. Kostovic lost 0-2 to Quevedo and 1-2 to Cengiz; the incomplete second Cengiz entry is excluded. No H2H is available and model quality is low.