Poullain L. vs Schwaerzler J. J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Schwaerzler took sets in eight of ten comparable hard-court matches, including 2-0 over Wendelken on 1 October and an August win over Heide. Poullain lost four of ten comparable matches 0-2, including September losses to Morais, Chidekh and Echargui. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Poullain just beat Lajal and Bertola in three sets. Schwaerzler lost 0-2 to Potenza and Miyoshi and several wins needed deciding sets. No H2H is supplied and the ranking gap alone is insufficient.