Vacherot V. vs Tsitsipas S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Tsitsipas won his latest three hard-court matches, beating Etcheverry 2-1 on 1 October after straight-set wins over Hijikata and Nishioka. Vacherot took sets in only two of four comparable recent hard-court best-of-three matches. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Vacherot just beat Blockx 2-0, is ranked 18 versus 44 and is favoured by the model. Tsitsipas lost 0-2 to Kovacevic and Auger-Aliassime in August. Both comparable samples are modest; best-of-five results are excluded and the 2016 clay H2H carries little weight.