Jacquet K. vs Darderi L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Jacquet won four of his latest five hard-court matches, including straight-set wins over Rune, Marozsan and Etcheverry. He took sets in seven of ten comparable matches, while Darderi lost three of six comparable best-of-three matches 0-2. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Darderi is ranked 19 versus 86 and just beat Ruud 2-0. Jacquet lost 0-2 to Rublev, Vukic and Vallejo; Darderi's US Open wins are contrary form context but are not counted as best-of-three trials. No H2H is supplied and model quality is low.