Hurkacz H. vs Gea A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Hurkacz won seven of eight comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, including 2-1 over Tien on 1 October and recent wins over Shapovalov, Harris and Damm. These results provide support against stronger opposition than much of Gea's comparable sample. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Gea won five of six comparable matches and just beat Zhang, Machac and Te without dropping a set. Hurkacz lost 0-2 to Davidovich Fokina and has a heavy recent workload. Best-of-five results are excluded from comparable counts; no H2H is supplied.