Justo G. I. vs Villanueva G.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Justo beat Sakamoto and Roncadelli 2-0 on 30 September-1 October and beat Villanueva 2-1 on 22 September. He won all five supplied H2Hs, three without losing a set. Comparable counts use supplied completed clay best-of-three results from 19 July to 2 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Villanueva just beat Alves 2-0 and Prado Angelo 2-1 and took sets in nine of ten recent clay matches. Justo has three setless losses in his eight-match comparable sample, so the H2H advantage is not decisive.