Virtus Bologna vs Olympiacos

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Olympiacos won nine of ten September games, including their latest four: 106-89 at Baskonia, 93-80 against AEK Athens, 101-96 against PAOK and 93-91 at Zalgiris Kaunas. Virtus lost three of their latest four, twice against Olimpia Milano and once against Fenerbahce; their five September wins include 110-67 against Pesaro and 83-79 against Rimini, showing that winning margins differ materially across opponents. Olympiacos also won the latest six listed H2Hs, although those are older supporting context. Main risk: this is an away game, the win in Kaunas was only by two points, Virtus beat Varese 90-69 on September 27, and the feed model rates Olympiacos only 51%. The estimate discounts the raw 9/10 record for close games, venue and mixed competition.