Buse I. vs Halys Q.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Halys took a set in all six supplied recent completed hard-court best-of-three matches, including three deciding-set losses and wins over Kopriva, Bu and Kwon. He also took two sets from Zverev at the US Open, used only as longer-format context. Main risk: Buse won five of seven comparable matches, including wins over Fery, Bonzi and Cerundolo, and is ranked 35 versus 50. Halys has lost his latest supplied matches; no H2H is available. Best-of-five and unknown-surface results are excluded from the comparable counts.