Tien L. vs Hurkacz H.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Hurkacz won seven of eight supplied recent completed hard-court best-of-three matches, including September wins over Shapovalov, Harris, Damm and Shevchenko. Tien lost two of six comparable matches 0-2. This supports a Hurkacz set without requiring him to beat the higher-ranked opponent. Main risk: Hurkacz just lost 0-2 to Davidovich Fokina and has a heavy recent workload. Tien beat Cobolli and is ranked 15 versus 41; the model favours Tien and its quality is low. No H2H is supplied; best-of-five results are excluded from the counts.