Kozlov S. vs Krueger M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Krueger took a set in four of six supplied recent completed hard-court matches, including wins over Zink, Seggerman and Smith. Kozlov won three of nine comparable matches and lost three 0-2. Krueger's two latest supplied H2Hs were 2-1 wins, albeit on grass and clay. Main risk: Kozlov just beat Trotter 2-0 and is higher ranked, while Krueger lost 0-2 to Zheng and Gonzalez Fernandez. The current sample is modest and the hard-court H2Hs are old; this supports a set more than a full win.