Shapovalov D. vs Shimabukuro S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Shapovalov took a set in all six supplied recent completed hard-court best-of-three matches, including September wins over Mannarino, Kopriva and Griekspoor. Shimabukuro lost four of eight comparable matches 0-2, including his latest against Gaston. Main risk: Shapovalov lost deciding sets to Hurkacz and Jodar; Shimabukuro has wins over Dellien and Budkov Kjaer. The supplied H2H ended at 0-1 and is not treated as a completed match. Best-of-five and incomplete scores are excluded from the comparable counts.