Zverev A. vs Norrie C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Zverev beat Tien 2-0 on 27 September and took a set from De Minaur and Paul in his other recent hard-court best-of-three matches. His seven supplied September best-of-five results all included a set, providing broader form context; they are not counted as best-of-three trials. He also beat Norrie 2-1 on hard courts in August. Main risk: Norrie took sets in eight of nine supplied recent completed hard-court best-of-three matches and beat De Minaur. Only three comparable matches are in Zverev's recent-form list, and Norrie's latest supplied result is from 30 August.