Trabzonspor (Tur) vs Drogheda (Irl)

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Drogheda's latest seven matches all reached two goals, including September's 1-2 at Bohemians, 2-1 at Shelbourne and 2-0 against Sligo Rovers. Trabzonspor's latest two home games were 4-0 against Galatasaray and 5-0 against Genclerbirligi; seven of their last ten cleared this line. Main risk: Trabzonspor also have three one-goal matches in that sample, and Drogheda had consecutive 0-0 draws in July-August. Friendly rotation, different opposition and no H2H warrant a reduced estimate.