Malta vs Gibraltar

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. All six of Malta's 2026 results in the supplied sample stayed below four goals, including September's 2-1 at Andorra and 2-0 against Liechtenstein. Gibraltar's last two matches were 0-0, and both March games against Latvia ended 0-1. Main risk: Gibraltar scored four against both Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands in June, while Malta conceded heavily against stronger opponents last autumn. Those opposition differences and old H2Hs limit certainty.