Chicago Fire II vs Toronto FC II

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 80% high quality with a 3.19-1.05 expected-goals edge; Chicago average 3.0 goals overall and 4.25 at home in their last 10 while Toronto lost 6 of 10 conceding 2.6 per away game, and Chicago won 4 of the last 6 H2H. Main risk: no market odds to sanity-check the model and MLS Next Pro squads rotate heavily.