Rottgering M. vs Winter E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Rottgering M. won a set in 7 of 10 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (7 wins). Rottgering has hard-court wins over Machac, Choinski and Grenier in the supplied August sample. Winter lost his latest four matches, three in straight sets. Main risk: Rottgering lost his latest two matches 0-2, to Fery and Basavareddy, with a long gap between them; most positive results are from August. The rankings are nearly equal and Winter won five of ten, so this is a modest set-market edge.