Donald M. vs Sakellaridis D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Donald M. won a set in 7 of 10 completed clay-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (5 wins). Donald beat Cordoba yesterday and Cadenasso this month, with deciding-set losses to Oradini and Fatic. He beat Sakellaridis D. 2-0 on clay in August. Main risk: Sakellaridis has four wins in seven comparable matches and just beat Garbero 2-0; Donald has only five wins in ten and was swept by Blanch, Brunold and Hassan. The small rank advantage alone is insufficient.