Vallejo D. vs Daniel T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Vallejo D. won a set in 5 of 6 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (3 wins). Vallejo beat Cui and took a set against Wong recently; August wins over Vacherot and Jacquet and a deciding-set loss to Paul add support. His rank is 58 versus 193. Main risk: Daniel won six of ten comparable matches, beat Sweeny, Matsuoka and Delaney recently, and took a set against Marozsan. Vallejo was swept by Van De Zandschulp; his incomplete Carreno-Busta match is excluded, and the secondary model favors Daniel.