Riera J. vs Siskova A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Siskova A. won a set in 6 of 7 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (6 wins). Siskova won her latest five hard-court matches, including Podrez and Crawley in three sets. Riera has only two wins in six comparable matches and lost her latest three in straight sets. Main risk: Riera is slightly higher ranked and beat Siskova in a 2022 clay meeting; Siskova's earlier streak opponents were lower-level and she lost 0-2 to Hibino in August. The estimate is lower than the secondary model's optimistic match-win figure.