Matusevich A. vs Bertrand R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Matusevich A. won a set in 9 of 10 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (6 wins). Matusevich beat Cacao yesterday; his losses to Schoolkate on September 17, Ribecai on August 26 and Tarvet on August 21 each included a set. He also beat Moller and Shimizu in straight sets and won the April clay meeting with Bertrand. Main risk: Bertrand has seven wins in ten September hard-court matches and beat the same Cacao opponent 2-0; yesterday Matusevich needed three sets. The direct meeting was on clay, and the secondary model slightly favors Bertrand.