Staeheli L. vs Rybakov A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Rybakov A. won a set in 8 of 10 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (5 wins). Rybakov beat Forbes 2-0 yesterday and Sell 2-0 on September 20; he took a set against Baris on September 21. His three deciding-set losses also include Bonding and Tarvet. Main risk: Staeheli is ranked 451 versus 511, just beat Kuzuhara 2-0 and won three of five comparable matches; Rybakov was swept by Seggerman and Broom. Staeheli's older incomplete result is excluded and his subsequent normal completion is verified.