Mochizuki S. vs Faria J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Faria J. won a set in 6 of 7 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (5 wins). Faria beat Atmane recently and took a set against Gaston, with August hard-court wins over Walton, Shelton and Brooksby. Mochizuki won only four of nine comparable matches and just lost 0-2 to Damm. Main risk: Mochizuki beat Kotov and Xiao in the current swing and won their grass meeting last year. Faria lost 0-2 to Musetti; best-of-five results and unknown-surface matches are excluded from the counts.