Jacquet K. vs Rublev A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Jacquet K. won a set in 8 of 10 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (6 wins). Jacquet has won all three current rounds, beating Marozsan and Etcheverry 2-0 after a three-set win over Vukic. That current opposition supports a set despite the ranking gap. Main risk: Rublev is ranked 25 versus 107 and won both current rounds, against Hijikata and Gaston. Jacquet previously lost 0-2 to Vukic and Vallejo; the supplied match-winner model is low quality and is not the basis of this estimate.