Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Sydney won its two decisive September games by 21 points, against Cairns and New Zealand Breakers; the 98-98 Tasmania friendly is excluded from the win count. Illawarra lost all three current games, including 81-95 to the same Breakers opponent. Sydney won the last four supplied head-to-heads by at least 18 points. Main risk: Sydney have only two decisive current results, Illawarra's other recent losses were by five and eight, and the older direct meetings may involve different lineups.