Harris L. vs Hurkacz H.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Hurkacz took a set in all eight completed hard-court best-of-three matches and won seven, including Damm and Shevchenko this week and earlier wins over Safiullin and Baez. His two US Open best-of-five results are excluded. He won the supplied 2022 hard-court head-to-head 2-0. Main risk: Harris also took a set in all eight comparable matches and won seven, with four consecutive straight-set wins including Vacherot and Kovacevic. The old head-to-head has limited current weight against that form.