Safiullin R. vs Bu Y.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Safiullin took a set in five of six completed hard-court best-of-three matches and won four, including Halys 2-1 and Sun 2-0 this week plus August wins over Wawrinka and Ofner. Best-of-five results are excluded. Main risk: Bu has won both rounds this week, including Majchrzak 2-1, and is favored by the match-winner model. Safiullin's comparable sample is only six matches and includes a 0-2 loss to Hurkacz.