Wang J. vs Zheng W.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Zheng took a set in all eight completed hard-court matches and won five, including Leykina 2-0 yesterday and September wins over Sagandykova and Yao. Two incomplete results are excluded; yesterday's match is publicly verified finished. Main risk: Wang is ranked 398 against 488, just beat Zhang Y. 2-0 and won their April head-to-head 2-0. Some of Zheng's set history dates to June, limiting reliance on the perfect completed-sample rate.