Maristany G. vs Grabher J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Maristany won eight of ten completed clay matches, including four consecutive 2-0 wins over Pieri, Masarova, Lombardini and Papamichail. Earlier three-set wins over Burel and Trevisan strengthen the surface-specific evidence for taking a set. Main risk: Grabher is ranked 111 against 170 and has won all four current clay matches, most recently Selekhmeteva 2-0. Her comparable surface sample is short but strong, and Maristany has two earlier straight-set defeats this month.