Japan W vs South Korea W

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Japan won all five current Asian Games matches, including 80-52 over Chinese Taipei and 89-67 over the Philippines. Against Taipei, South Korea won by 14 rather than Japan's 28. Japan also won both August meetings with South Korea, 78-77 and 77-59. Main risk: South Korea are also 5-0 and beat China 85-80 yesterday; Japan faced several weaker opponents and the latest direct meeting was decided by just one point.