Chinese Taipei W vs China W

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. China won three of four current Asian Games matches. Against shared opponents they beat Mongolia by 26 versus Chinese Taipei's nine and lost to South Korea by five versus Taipei's 14. Taipei also lost 52-80 to Japan yesterday. China's 104-60 head-to-head win in 2023 is secondary evidence. Main risk: China just lost 80-85 to South Korea and lost 61-90 to France earlier this month; Taipei are 3-2 in the tournament and the old head-to-head may involve different rosters.