Moeller M. vs Mikrut L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Moeller took a set in eight of nine completed clay matches and in each of his latest six completed matches. This week he beat Blanch 2-1, Arnaboldi 2-0 and Travaglia 2-1; the incomplete Mrva score is excluded. Main risk: Mikrut has three straight-set wins this week and won both supplied clay meetings with Moeller 2-1. He is higher ranked and favored by the match-winner model, although Moeller took a set in both head-to-head losses.