Austin FC II vs Sporting Kansas City II

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 83% high quality with a 3.2-0.85 expected-goals edge; Austin have won the last four meetings (2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0) and Sporting Kansas City II concede 3.17 per away game. Main risk: Austin have drawn their last two and lost at home to Minnesota 2-3, so their home form is less dominant than the model implies.