Marozsan F. vs Daniel T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Marozsan took a set in all seven completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the sample, winning four, including Bolt 2-0 yesterday. Even his recent losses to Duckworth, Zheng and Arnaldi went three sets. The best-of-five results and unknown-surface Van Herck match are excluded. Main risk: Daniel has three consecutive straight-set wins and seven wins from ten hard-court matches; Marozsan's higher ranking does not erase that form or guarantee the match win.