Kopriva V. vs Shapovalov D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Shapovalov took a set in five of six completed hard-court best-of-three matches and won four, including Griekspoor 2-0 yesterday and earlier wins over Mannarino and Norrie. Three best-of-five results and the incomplete 1-1 Svajda score are excluded. Kopriva won three of six comparable hard-court matches. Main risk: Shapovalov lost 0-2 to Gea in August and has a shorter comparable sample than the raw ten-match list suggests; Kopriva has already won his opener. Their lone 2021 clay meeting has little current relevance.