Ristic M. vs Pieri J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Ristic won five of seven completed clay matches in the sample, including Rus 2-1 and Basiletti 2-1 this week. She also beat Pieri 2-0 on clay in July and is ranked 191 against 383. These provide independent support for taking one set. Main risk: Pieri has four consecutive clay wins, including Romero Gormaz and Kucmova, while Ristic lost 0-2 to Barthel and Gjorcheska earlier this month.