Faria J. vs Gaston H.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Faria won six of seven completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied sample, including Atmane 2-1 this week and wins over Walton, Shelton and Brooksby in August. The two best-of-five results and the Cruz match with unspecified surface are excluded from that count. Main risk: Gaston has taken a set in seven of eight comparable completed hard-court matches, and Faria needed three sets in his opener; no head-to-head is supplied.