Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Model gives Lech 68% win + 18% draw; they are unbeaten at home against Piast in the recent series (3-0, 1-0, plus a 2-0 win in Gliwice) and Piast average only 0.5 goals per away game. Main risk: Piast beat Lech 1-0 in February and have kept three clean sheets against them in the last six, so a low-scoring away win is possible.