Andreeva M. vs Sasnovich A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Andreeva won seven of her last ten completed hard-court matches, including Bartunkova, Lys, Tjen and Potapova, and took Gauff to three sets. Her ranking of 5 versus 132 and stronger opposition support the outright win; the old clay H2H is secondary. Main risk: Sasnovich just beat Kasatkina 2-0 and is match-sharp, while Andreeva has not played since September 9 and recently lost to Fernandez and Kostyuk.